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Subtropical Storm BERYL (Text)

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SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS
FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS
COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  AROUND 2200
UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH
PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE
AROUND 1001 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY COOLED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND
TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5.  GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT
THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...
THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING.  A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY
LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN
ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN
THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY
EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS
ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MARGINALLY WARM WATERS
AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS
INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM.  ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 32.5N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 31.4N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 30.2N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL
 72H  29/0000Z 30.5N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0000Z 31.2N  82.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0000Z 32.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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