| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm ALBERTO (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
 
ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
 
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY 
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 31.7N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 31.4N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 31.2N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 31.6N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 32.8N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 36.2N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0600Z 39.0N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 
NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:04 UTC