Tropical Storm KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011
 
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN NOR THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCT PASS SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WEAKENING.
 
KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 13.8N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.3N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 14.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 14.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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