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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011
 
KENNETH IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE VERY CLEAR 20 N MI WIDE EYE IS STILL
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 125 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  IN ABOUT
2 DAYS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND KENNETH IS 
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE 
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY 
MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11 KT. 
KENNETH SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS PRIMARILY
DUE TO HOW DEEP VERTICALLY THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE.  THE
HWRF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 24-48 HOURS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP KENNETH ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. 
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND
IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET
MODELS.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 12.6N 114.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 12.8N 116.3W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 13.4N 118.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.1N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 14.7N 120.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.5N 123.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 15.7N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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