Tropical Storm IRWIN
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TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2
TROP DEPRESSION 1 2 3 2 2 2 4
TROPICAL STORM 86 64 49 42 28 33 43
HURRICANE 13 33 48 56 71 64 52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 29 38 38 40 40 34
HUR CAT 2 1 3 7 11 19 16 13
HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 5 9 8 4
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 80KT 80KT 80KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 4(19)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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