ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 65SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 106.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 20SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 15SE 40SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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