Tropical Storm IRWIN
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TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 106.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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