Tropical Storm IRWIN
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TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.6W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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