Tropical Storm IRWIN
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TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 118.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 119.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 119.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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