ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN VANISHED...LEAVING IRWIN AS A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NOW SHOWS IRWIN DISSIPATING IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EASY TO LOCATE...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 225/4. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRWIN MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED. IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE WEAK SYSTEM COULD CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.6N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 14.2N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 14.0N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 13.4N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:19 UTC