Tropical Depression IRWIN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011
 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH IRWIN...AND THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF LOSING THE CONVECTIVE
REQUIREMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE
BEING KEPT AT 30 KT DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
BACKGROUND 20-25 KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ITCZ.  WHILE THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SOLUTION.  THEREFORE...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
IRWIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW ABOUT 11 KT.  A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
THE REMNANTS OF IRWIN ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
WEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO BE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE NEW TRACK OF IRWIN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 18.3N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 18.6N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0600Z 16.4N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0600Z 15.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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