ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011 IRWIN HAS A FAIRLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH SEVERAL SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT AN EYE IS NOT VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE DVORAK EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY...THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET TO 75 KT. ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ENOUGH SO THAT THE INFLUENCE OF OCEANIC UPWELLING IS MINIMAL...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD MID- TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE TO BE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.9N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.2N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.6N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.7N 120.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 14.7N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 15.5N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:19 UTC