Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
...CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOVA NEARING THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST.  JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS EVENING.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER WESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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