Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT JOVA HAS WEAKENED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.9N 105.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THE COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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