Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
 
...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED A
UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 
90 MILES...150 KM.
 
RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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