Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
...CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOVA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.0N 105.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND MOVE OVER WESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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