| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane JOVA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
...CENTER OF JOVA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND CROSS THE COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN