Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO...AND CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO
MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  45SE  45SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.9N 105.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  55SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 107.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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