ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOVA. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.2W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.2W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 105SE 105SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 105SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 65SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 135SE 105SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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