Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
JOVA IS MAINTAINING A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE...BUT NO EYE IS
APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  SSM/I IMAGERY DID
DEPICT AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER. 
DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THE HURRICANE IS OVER VERY
WARM WATERS.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
OF JOVA CROSSES THE COASTLINE.  ONCE INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN
MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE
WHICH INCLUDES AN INLAND DECAY MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINOUS
LAND MASS MAY CAUSE AN EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE TYPICAL
INLAND DECAY...SO JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE AND THE MOTION IS NOW 020/7.  JOVA IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN A DAY OR SO...AS
ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF JOVA.  THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH WIND AND SURGE ARE OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ALONG THE
COAST...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN.  HEAVY
RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 19.0N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 19.9N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/0000Z 20.4N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1200Z 20.7N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/0000Z 21.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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