Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011
 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH 
A 09/0936Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED THE EYE WAS OPEN TO THE
NORTHEAST...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME INDICATES
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND HAVE WRAPPED AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE 
A DEVELOPING WARM SPOT OR EYE IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CDO.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77
KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.6/79 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA AND SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JOVA IS
MOVING EASTWARD...OR 090/05 KT...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
RATIONALE. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO IN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH. BY 48 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE JOVA TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN SPEED DIFFERENCES...
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 60-72 HOURS...USERS SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 NMI.
 
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM STILL APPEAR TO BE
SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE GFS MODEL DUE TO WARMING
THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO CREATING EXCESSIVE SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED
OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA BY 48 HOURS. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS...AS DO THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT FORECASTS OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER TWO MODELS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...
COUPLED WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. JOVA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKEN
QUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.2N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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