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Hurricane JOVA (Text)

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011
 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS STRENGTHENED.  RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING INNER-CORE STRUCTURE WITH
A CLOSED EYEWALL...WHILE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IS NOTED IN INFRARED PICTURES.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AROUND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOVA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
GROUND TRUTH DATA THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD
ABOUT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOVA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO.  A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN JOVA
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.  THE
UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4...AND
SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS.  SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 N
MI...USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK.
 
JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS MAKE JOVA A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHILE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS JOVA TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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