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Tropical Storm JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS OR SO. NOW THAT THE
NOCTURNAL BURSTING PATTERN HAS SUBSIDED...THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION  APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLE INTO A CDO PATTERN...WITH A
SMALL RING OF OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS ENCIRCLING THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. ALTHOUGH A 08/0947Z AMSU OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW MUCH MEAT ON
THE BONES IN TERMS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...THE CONVECTION
SINCE THAT TIME APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND A
2-HR UW-CIMSS ADT AVERAGE OF T3.7/59 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/03 KT. JOVA IS LOCATED ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS LIES ALONG 16N LATITUDE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THIS AREA...PLUS SOME BINARY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE IRWIN LOCATED TO THE WEST...JOVA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...NOTED JUST NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...A
SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FIRST
TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT JOVA TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATTER FORECAST
PERIODS...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO
CONVERGE ON LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE 84 TO 96
HOUR TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL LIES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.
 
JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME FOR
ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY UPPER-LEVEL WARMING CREATED
IN THE MODEL AS IT STRENGTHENS JOVA. LIKEWISE...THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOWN IN THE MODEL IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW THAT
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.8N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.1N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.2N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 18.3N 105.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 21.5N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:19 UTC