Tropical Storm JOVA

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011
 
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT LOCATING THE CENTER OF JOVA...BUT BASED ON
CONTINUITY IT APPEARS TO NOW BE EMBEDDED BENEATH A LARGE CONVECTIVE
CANOPY.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
60-65 KT FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
55 KT...BUT IF THE CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...THIS
COULD BE THE START OF A STRENGTHENING TREND.

JOVA IS LOCATED DUE SOUTH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE
APPEARS TO BE MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
005 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING NEAR ITS BASE AND EFFECTIVELY STEERING JOVA TOWARD THE
EAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. 
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH
ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. 
ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW JOVA RESPONDING TO THIS BY MAKING A
SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AT 72 HOURS AND APPROACHING THE MEXICAN
COAST IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. 
THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN KEEP THE CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST
AT 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AT THAT POINT BUT IS STILL INLAND.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY COMPLEX.  THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH BRING
JOVA TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH WEAKEN JOVA TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE TOO STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE EASTWARD MOTION DOES NOT
NORMALLY SUPPORT A LOT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN PULLED BACK A BIT AFTER 48 HOURS UP UNTIL
LANDFALL...BUT IT IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.9N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 16.3N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.5N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 16.6N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 21.5N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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