Tropical Storm HILARY

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
 
...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES 
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BUT ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND HILARY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TOMORROW.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HEAVY SQUALLS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ALREADY. HOWEVER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE COAST SOON...AND
SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN