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Post-Tropical Cyclone HILARY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COMPLETELY WARMED
ABOVE -50C.  SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
FOR AT LEAST 18 HOURS...HILARY IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT
THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A 1716
UTC ASCAT PASS...BUT HILARY IS OVER WATERS OF 22C AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW IS BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
HILARY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 23.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  01/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1800Z 23.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 23.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 23.5N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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