ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011 HILARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COMPLETELY WARMED ABOVE -50C. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 18 HOURS...HILARY IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A 1716 UTC ASCAT PASS...BUT HILARY IS OVER WATERS OF 22C AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 23.6N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 23.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 23.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 23.5N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC