ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011 HILARY HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IT CAN HARDLY BE DESCRIBED AS DEEP SINCE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY REACHING -50C. THE DEPRESSION HAS GONE ABOUT 12 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 3. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT. HILARY IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE TVCE CONSENSUS SINCE THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A MOTION CLOSER TO DUE NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.4N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 23.6N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 23.7N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 23.7N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC