Tropical Depression HILARY

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
HILARY HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
CENTER...BUT IT CAN HARDLY BE DESCRIBED AS DEEP SINCE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY REACHING -50C.  THE DEPRESSION HAS GONE
ABOUT 12 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED BEFORE
IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.  MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTHEAST OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE TVCE CONSENSUS SINCE THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATES A MOTION CLOSER TO DUE NORTH. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 23.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.4N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1200Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z 23.7N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 23.7N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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