ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY DIMINISHED AROUND 0200 UTC YESTERDAY EVENING...AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WHICH IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION. CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABSENT QUITE LONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. A 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE WELL-DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY MOVES OVER 22-23C WATERS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06. STRIPPED OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW SHALLOW IN NATURE...HILARY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 23.4N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 23.3N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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