ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT IS LIKELY TO ONLY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED CONSERVATIVELY TO 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. HILARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY. HILARY HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.6N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/0000Z 23.2N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 23.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 23.3N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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