Tropical Storm HILARY
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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ONLY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED A HIGHER INTENSITY
THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. HILARY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.
HILARY HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.6N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 01/0000Z 23.2N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 23.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 23.3N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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