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Tropical Storm HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2011
 
HILARY STOPPED PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND A
BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE WITH DECAYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES...
HILARY COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS OVER
23-26C WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOUR OR SO. 
THE REMNANT LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY
4.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  NOW THAT IT
IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE REMNANT LOW OF HILARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
LOCATED NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 32N...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD FROM 48 HOURS THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH
MISSION IN HILARY LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA ON THE CYCLONE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 20.4N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 21.3N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 22.3N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 23.0N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC