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Tropical Storm HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2011
 
SINCE THE NOAA RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTED HILARY THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE.  THE MOST
RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE DECOUPLING.  BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND
CI-NUMBERS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT.  RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HILARY MOVES OVER COLDER WATER
AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE CENTER IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.  THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF
325/7 IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AIRCRAFT FIX AND
THE EARLIER AMSU IMAGE.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 19.6N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.6N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 23.5N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0000Z 23.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC