Tropical Storm HILARY
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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2011
SINCE THE NOAA RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTED HILARY THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE. THE MOST
RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE DECOUPLING. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND
CI-NUMBERS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HILARY MOVES OVER COLDER WATER
AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE CENTER IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF
325/7 IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AIRCRAFT FIX AND
THE EARLIER AMSU IMAGE. HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.6N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.6N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 23.5N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z 23.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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