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Hurricane HILARY


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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HILARY HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE EYE
BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  HOWEVER...RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DISTINCT EYE...BUT THE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED.
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.  A PERIOD
OF RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 24 HOURS...AS SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  THE
FORECAST SHOWS HILARY TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS
COMMENCED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6.  HILARY SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW.  THE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AFTER HILARY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT
IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH YIELDS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.1N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 21.3N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 23.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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