Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HILARY HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE EYE
BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  HOWEVER...RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DISTINCT EYE...BUT THE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED.
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.  A PERIOD
OF RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 24 HOURS...AS SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  THE
FORECAST SHOWS HILARY TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS
COMMENCED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6.  HILARY SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW.  THE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AFTER HILARY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT
IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH YIELDS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.1N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 21.3N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 23.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC