Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HILARY HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW LARGELY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EYE IS OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...BUT NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...CROSSING THE
26C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS VERTICAL
SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
REACHING ABOUT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AFTER
THAT TIME.

HILARY HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED A
LITTLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/06. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD
THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...BUT STILL LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS
AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 17.1N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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