Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011
 
HILARY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE EYE HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY MIDDLE OR LOW CLOUDS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110
KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS
AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO VERY LITTLE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS A
RESULT OF INNER-CORE CHANGES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...HOWEVER
THESE CHANGES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY.

ASIDE FROM SOME WOBBLES...THE TRACK OF HILARY HAS BEEN WESTWARD OR
275/8.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 24N 135W IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOW HILARY TURNING SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.2N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 17.4N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 17.5N 113.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.3N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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