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Hurricane HILARY (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
SPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED
BY VERY STRONG CONVECTION. ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY GOOD
PREVAILING ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...HILARY COULD STILL
GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN IF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR AND RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE...AND HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  

TRACKING THE EYE ON SATELLITE GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
NORMALLY VERY STEADY...AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HILARY ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTHWARD BUT
VERY SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY
WHEN THE STEERING IS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE.  IT COULD BE AN
INTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO
NOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 16.9N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.3N 107.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.8N 110.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 19.5N 115.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC