Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011
 
HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD
BE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY
COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING
SAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. 

HILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE
SMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS
HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC