ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REVEAL A DISTINCT RING OF DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE THE STATISTICAL LGEM MODEL BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE HWRF. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF/GFDL PAIR WHICH TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE GULF OF CORTES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GIVEN THE GOOD PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION...A TRACK NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE WIND RADII...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.4N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.7N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.2N 99.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 101.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.0N 107.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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