ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011 GREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION STUBBORNLY PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME IN AT 30 KT...THOUGH A COINCIDENT ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS AROUND 35 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT...AND GREG REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GREG...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GREG WILL BE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SSTS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 23C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STABLE AIR IS INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...GREG SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.9N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.7N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 18.9N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER WROE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:15 UTC