Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GREG


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
RECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
THIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY
WARMING.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX
OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOL WATERS
AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG
125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS
AND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.   THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:15 UTC