Hurricane GREG
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HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE WARMING AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING BUT STILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND SOON THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND GREG COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. GREG WILL LIKELY BE STEERED
TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN
FACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST GREG TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 2 DAYS.
GREG JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...AND DATA FROM A
MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION WAS VERY HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE
CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 19.1N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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