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Tropical Storm EUGENE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

EUGENE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME SMALLER
IN AREAL COVERAGE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS WANED...THE OUTER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE PROMINENT...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION IS BARELY DEEP ENOUGH TO BE DVORAK-CLASSIFIABLE. 
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM ABOUT 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT.  ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE
SYSTEM SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT...ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  EUGENE SHOULD LOSE
ITS REMAINING CONVECTION TOMORROW AND PROBABLY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE STORM HAS BEEN
MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12.  AS EUGENE WEAKENS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DUE TO IT BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
MOTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 19.4N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 19.8N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 20.0N 133.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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