ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011 EUGENE LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO WHEN CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -75C SURROUNDED THE EYE. SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH MESOVORTICIES EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 110 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATERS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 26C BY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE COOL WATERS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING...AND EUGENE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES 22C WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGAIN DISREGARDS THE SLOWER GFDL AND HWRF MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.3N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.9N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.7N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.4N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 19.0N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 20.2N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 21.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 21.5N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC