Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A BAND
OF WHITE ON THE DVORAK INFRARED ENHANCEMENT CURVE COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED THE LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ABOUT
1330 UTC...AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE 100 TO 105 KT AT 1200 UTC.  EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE WHITE
BAND RECENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE...
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...BETWEEN
115 AND 120 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT AS A
COMPROMISE.  

EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE PATH OF
EUGENE...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A PATCH OF HIGHER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THAT MAY HAVE AIDED INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THAT REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...EUGENE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS
MORE RELIANCE ON THE LATTER...PARTICULARLY WITH THE LGEM AFTER 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/12.  A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NEAR 128W WILL BE FILLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN EUGENE ON
ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  ANOTHER BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 135W AND 150W BY DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT EUGENE SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO BE STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 15.7N 114.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.3N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 17.7N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 18.4N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC