Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
 
OVERALL EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
1800Z...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS
MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING WHILE EUGENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME ONCE EUGENE
CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...290/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...AS EUGENE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AROUND 120W. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE AGAIN BEEN
DISCOUNTED AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 13.9N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 14.7N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 15.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 17.4N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC