Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DORA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011               
0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       9      51
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       2      23      34
TROPICAL STORM   4       4       3       3      26      53      15
HURRICANE       96      96      97      97      72      15       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       70      38      23      13      39      12       1
HUR CAT 2       23      40      35      27      20       2       X
HUR CAT 3        3      15      30      36      11       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       3       8      17       2       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       1       3       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    90KT   100KT   110KT    90KT    60KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  14(35)   1(36)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  13(32)   1(33)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   X(21)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)  10(24)   2(26)   X(26)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   5( 5)  16(21)  11(32)   5(37)   1(38)   X(38)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   6( 6)  14(20)   9(29)   4(33)   X(33)   1(34)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
L CARDENAS     34  3  12(15)   5(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  4   7(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ACAPULCO       34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  28(35)   6(41)   1(42)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  19(28)   2(30)   1(31)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC