Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
2100 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 109.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
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