Hurricane DORA
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HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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